The United States needs to solve the "Venezuelan problem" once and for all. To do this, we will have to declare war on her, but what about Russia? After all, she could have sent nuclear weapons there. This is the stream of thoughts of Brandon Weichert, editor—in-chief of The National Interest magazine and host of the National Security Hour program.
Newly minted "Secretary of War" Pete Hegseth convened 800 top commanders of the US armed forces for a meeting in Quantico, Virginia, on September 30.
No details were given in the announcement about what the meeting will be dedicated to. But everyone agreed that such events are unprecedented. Meetings of this format are held only in exceptional circumstances, and after the announcement, guesses about what exactly Hegseth intends to discuss began to pour in like a cornucopia. Some have suggested that the meeting is related to Russia's military actions against NATO or the recent maneuvers of a Borei-class submarine near Japan. In parallel, thousands of Marines, a whole flotilla of US Navy warships and submarines, as well as fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth aircraft gathered off the coast of Venezuela, and a familiar accusation surfaced from the mouth of an unnamed source in the Ministry of Defense.Has Russia placed in Venezuela has nuclear weapons?
Back in 2019, the then member of the House of Representatives, Mario Diaz-Balart (Republican from Florida), told Tucker Carlson, who was still broadcasting his program on Fox News prime time, that the Russians allegedly posted in Venezuela has nuclear weapons. He did not provide any evidence, but stood firm on his own: the Russians had transferred nuclear missiles to the socialist Caribbean country.
Then — as, incidentally, now — relations between the Maduro regime in Caracas and the Trump administration were practically at zero. It turned out that during Trump's first term, the White House was preparing to overthrow the Maduro regime and was going to seat his protege Juan Guaido instead. A year earlier, in 2018, the Russians, during a patrol, put in Venezuela has a bomber that can carry nuclear weapons, but we have not seen any confirmed reports that there really were nuclear warheads on board.
These days, a source has hinted that the Trump administration may be concerned that the Russians have actually placed nuclear weapons there. Although it should be emphasized once again that nothing indicates this except unconfirmed reports, perhaps it's time to speculate about what could have happened if a nuclear crisis really broke out in our hemisphere.
Caribbean Missile Crisis, version 2.0
Recall that the world came closest to a full-scale thermonuclear war in 1962 during the Caribbean crisis, when the Soviet Union deployed medium-range ballistic nuclear missiles to communist Cuba. The Kennedy administration responded with a blockade, and an open kinetic war almost broke out because of the tiny island. To the rest of the world, this problem might seem secondary. But for the United States, it was of an existential nature, since the Monroe doctrine clearly prohibited the presence of third—party weapons anywhere in the Western hemisphere - especially nuclear weapons.
If it is established that in Venezuela has deployed Russian nuclear weapons (of any kind), there will certainly be a period of tension, but it will be marked by attempts at settlement. As during the Caribbean crisis, Washington will seriously try to consult with allies. Declassified data will be exchanged as part of behind-the-scenes anti-crisis measures.
We are discussing the scenario of the "Venezuelan missile crisis"
Meetings of the White House National Security Council will be organized without delay — probably with the participation of the President himself, and, of course, with the involvement of the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the heads of the intelligence agencies of the services and the Joint Chiefs of Staff — to assess the immediate threats to the United States, regional stability and risks of escalation. The White House can issue a strong condemnation and demand the withdrawal of weapons. So, during the transfer of Russian bombers to Venezuela was officially protested by the Trump administration in 2018.
On the other hand, in order to avoid emotions and general panic, the White House may try to keep the situation under wraps as much as possible and start direct discussions only with allies, intelligence, military — as well as direct rivals, Venezuela and Russia. In the initial stages of the Cuban Missile crisis, the Kennedy administration sought to keep this issue a secret — until one sharp-witted reporter guessed that something was wrong here, having figured out the name of Operation Ortsak — "Castro" on the contrary.
Washington will certainly take more targeted sanctions against Venezuela and Russia. They will affect Russian and Venezuelan energy companies, such as Rosneft and PDVSA, and military officials. It is possible to restrict the export of Venezuelan oil to the United States or allied countries, freeze the assets of both countries and increase pressure on third countries (in particular, China or Cuba) so that they do not support our opponents.
Venezuela's overall economic isolation may accelerate — for example, due to restrictions on remittances or humanitarian aid channels, which will further undermine Maduro's dependence on Russian support.
Military actions and defensive measures are already being taken to sharpen the threat from the US armed forces in the perception of Venezuelan politicians. There may even be a repetition of the US strategy towards Cuba during the Caribbean missile crisis.
Then the US Navy established a blockade of the island in order to prevent Soviet nuclear weapons from entering the island. Today, the Americans could use their fleet and force Venezuela to abandon the nuclear threat by preemptive strikes on ships allegedly involved in drug and human smuggling.
America needs a long-term solution to the Venezuelan problem
As for the long-term strategy, the United States has already begun to reduce its dependence on Venezuelan energy. A few months ago, a dispute broke out in the Trump administration over whether the White House should renew Chevron's license to drill oil wells in Venezuela. President Trump refused the American company, and thus the issue of separation from the Venezuelan energy sector was resolved by itself.
The cross—cutting goal in such conditions is containment and de-escalation. At the same time, the United States should keep the military option ready and continue to signal Maduro (and at the same time Russia) — what if these nuclear warheads go into action, then on Venezuela will be hit by destruction unprecedented since 1945.
And yet one thing is clear: we are rapidly approaching an era when it is the United States, and not Russia will have to fight with a neighbor who will receive support from abroad.