In the context of geopolitical battles, the price of oil has hardly changed, but the cost of gas in Europe continues to pump. This week — down, despite a sharp reduction in supplies from Norway. The first delivery of sanctioned LNG from Russian consumers have given traders hope that sales from Arctic LNG—2 will become stable and the country The EU may not worry about reliable LNG imports.
Oil
During the week, oil prices barely changed. Traders expected a decline in demand in the US, while the prospect of a quick peaceful settlement on Ukraine still exists. The cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent dropped over the week from $ 67.7 to $ 67.4.
The market has partially shifted its attention to the OPEC+ meeting, which will take place next week, Tamas Varga of BP PVM Oil Associates told Reuters.
The parties to the deal continue to increase production. However, it did not affect deliveries to the United States, where the summer season is ending, which raises concerns about a decline in demand, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.
"I just don't see any pessimism about demand,— said Phil Flynn. — It is assumed that supplies from OPEC will increase, but we do not see this in the USA. I think the situation will remain tense."
Prices rose at the beginning of the week due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian export terminals, but reports of negotiations between Ukraine's European allies on a possible cease-fire helped contain the price increase, an analyst at Price Futures Group added.
Against this background, US crude oil inventories showed a more significant reduction than expected.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar predicts a decline in Brent crude futures to $ 63 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Investors are also watching India's reaction to pressure from the United States, but Delhi ignores Washington's demands, and, according to traders, Russian oil exports to the country should grow in September.
"It is widely believed that Russian sanctions are not expected, and India will ignore the threats of sanctions from the United States and continue to buy Russian crude oil at significantly reduced prices," Tamas Varga believes.
Gas
Meanwhile, gas price swings continue in Europe. Month-in-advance deliveries from the TTF exchange decreased in a week from $ 411 immediately to $389.
On the one hand, Norway has reduced supplies to Europe by a quarter at once — to 255 million cubic meters. The next stage of preventive repairs has begun in Severny. On the other hand, LNG supplies to countries The EU remains stable, as does the green generation.
LNG imports have increased in some parts of the European Union this week, especially in Germany and Italy, ANZ senior commodities strategist Daniel Hines said.
"This will help to compensate for Norwegian flows, which are declining due to seasonal maintenance," the analyst added.
In addition, the signal for the market was the delivery of the first batch of sanctioned Arctic LNG — 2 to consumers in China. The project under construction has been under direct US restrictions since November 2023, but can already produce more than 12 million tons of LNG per year. And stable supplies will add significant volumes to the market, which will reduce the risks of fierce competition for liquefied gas between Europe and Asia in winter.
True, this may be a small consolation for the countries of Central Europe, which refused Russian gas and did not oppose the stop of Ukrainian transit. For example, Austria, which pays higher prices for this. Previously, convenient logistics made it possible to reduce transportation costs, but now there is less gas on the Central European market and the cost of its delivery has increased. The result is the price difference between the Dutch TTF hub and the Austrian Baumgarten. So, if on August 28 last year it was $ 19 per thousand cubic meters, then a year later it will be $ 42. This is an overpayment of $ 23 million for every billion cubic meters.
Coal also slowed down in a week. Deliveries for a month in advance from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) dropped from $ 99.8 per ton to $96.