Oil and gas prices have shown stability this week. OPEC+ does not allow black gold to grow. And powerful LNG supplies to Europe stop the growth of gas prices in the EU countries. The stop of Ukrainian transit led to the fact that the United States came in second place in terms of fuel exports to the EU.
Oil
Oil quotes hardly changed during the week. The cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent rose from $ 67 to $ 68.3 per barrel.
"It looks like there is some profit—taking on concerns that OPEC will increase production more than expected," Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures group, told Reuters yesterday.
PVM analyst Tamas Varga said that the continuation of the accelerated growth of OPEC+ production will force the market to revise forecasts and world oil reserves.
Prices were also prevented from rising by a message on the American news site Axios, which says that the United States plans to resume nuclear negotiations with Iran next week, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran remains committed to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over US duty policy is back in the spotlight as the 90—day pause ends.
"On Friday, Washington began sending letters to countries in which it will indicate what tariff rates they will face for goods exported to The United States, which is a clear departure from earlier promises to conclude dozens of separate trade deals," Reuters reports.
So far, expectations for OPEC+ have come true.
The parties to the deal agreed on an accelerated increase in production for the fourth month in a row — and in August. Production growth will be 548 thousand barrels per day. Previously, the monthly increase was set at 411 thousand barrels per day.True, the participants themselves are already mining more limits. For example, Kazakhstan's quota will be 1.53 million barrels per day, while the real one has already reached 1.88 million.
Gas
The European gas market took a pause this week and prices remained stable. During the week, deliveries for a month in advance from the TTF exchange increased from $ 409 to $ 414 per thousand cubic meters.
After the price spurt due to the Middle East war, the market took a break. Norwegian and Russian gas supplies are stable, and LNG imports are at their maximum. Therefore, the injection of gas into storage facilities is proceeding at a pace and it was not affected even by the abnormal heat that hit all over Europe. In this situation, Gazprom won a little, which increased supplies to Greece, which turned out to be one of the main victims of the sweltering heat.
Meanwhile, the EU said that Russian gas supplies had fallen below American ones due to the suspension of Ukrainian transit.
"The termination of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine since January 1 has led to a drop in Russian pipeline gas supplies by 45% compared to the previous quarter and by 39% compared to the same period in 2024. This means that the United States has overtaken Russia and has become the second largest gas supplier to the EU (after Norway)," the European Commission reports. They noted that now the main fuel from LNG became Russia for the EU.
Coal has also risen in price this week. Deliveries for a month in advance from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) increased from $105 to $108 per ton in a week.