Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev plan to meet in Dubai at the end of this month, as they continue to discuss the signing of a peace agreement between the two Transcaucasian republics. This was announced the day before, on July 2, by the publication Middle East Eye (MEE, headquarters in London), citing its sources in The United Arab Emirates.
The last time Pashinyan and Aliyev met in May on the sidelines of the European Political Community (ENP) summit in Tirana, where they agreed to keep communication channels open, MEE recalls.
Although Armenia and Azerbaijan reached consensus on the draft peace agreement in mid-March 2025, Baku still insists on several additional conditions before the official signing of the treaty. Azerbaijan demands that Armenia amend its constitution, which, according to its version, contains "territorial claims" to the neighboring country, as well as jointly dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, which has been an international mechanism for facilitating the settlement of the Karabakh conflict since the 1990s.
Two sources "familiar with the situation" told the pan-Arab publication (believed to be close to the Qatari authorities) that the planned meeting in Dubai is a positive sign indicating that both sides are still ready to cooperate, despite the differences that remain between them. Next year, Pashinyan is facing the most important elections, and experts believe that he is unlikely to be able to hold a constitutional referendum to bring the Basic Law of Armenia "in line" with Aliyev's requirements before the voting day in the parliamentary elections.
Meanwhile, Ankara is secretly urging Baku to sign a peace agreement, drawing the attention of the Azerbaijani authorities to the changing dynamics in the region, in particular, in connection with the weakening of Iran's influence, the publication says.Apparently, the reason for the "weakening" of Iranian influence in the South Caucasus, MEE analysts see the problems of the Islamic Republic, which it faced following the results of the 12-day war with Israel. In any case, this conclusion seems to be very controversial, since Tehran, with its recent statements and actions, demonstrates the preservation of priority attention to developments in the Transcaucasia.
One way or another, a London-based observer specializing in the Middle East aptly notes that the ongoing process of normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia is closely linked to a potential Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement. The Turkish leadership views Armenia as "a key country for the so-called Middle Corridor, which will directly connect Turkey with Central Asia." Turkish companies also seek to participate in infrastructure projects in Armenia, the information and analytical portal notes.
According to MEE's interlocutors in the UAE, the Arab monarchy "looks forward to holding talks as part of its efforts to improve relations between the two Caucasian countries."
Last week, UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan held telephone conversations with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, the publication reminds in confirmation of the information he received about the upcoming meeting of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the highest level.
The press secretary of the Prime Minister of Armenia Nazeli Baghdasaryan commented this Thursday on reports about a possible meeting between Pashinyan and Aliev is in Dubai.
"Reliable information about the Prime Minister's visits is provided in a timely manner," Baghdasaryan evasively stated in response to a request from the state news agency "Armenpress", thereby not confirming, but not refuting the information in the media.
Territorial binding of the alleged meeting of Pashinyan and Aliyev in the business capital of the Middle East is quite remarkable in the light of recent events around the South Caucasus.
Several foreign capitals were previously considered as the place of signing the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Among them, such options as Moscow, Ankara, Astana/Alma-Ata have previously surfaced in the press. Recently, the Emirates have also been mentioned. This happened against the background of a sharp aggravation of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan in the last week of last month.
Russia initially offered a Moscow platform for the official registration of a historical document, objectively indicating its greatest expediency and authenticity. After all, it was Moscow that played a decisive role in ending the second Karabakh war in the fall of 2020. With the personal and most active participation of President Vladimir Putin, a trilateral statement was signed by the leaders of the states (Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan), which stopped the 44-day hostilities. The Russian side had and still has the right to expect that the end of the protracted Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict will be put in the capital of the Russian Federation. However, everything turned out to be not so simple.
Even at the first stages of agreeing on the draft peace treaty, Yerevan refused to consider Moscow as the most optimal option when choosing the place of signing. However, the Armenian authorities have made it clear every time that this is not of fundamental importance to them. It is much more important to ensure the shortest possible time to attend the ceremony. And where exactly it will happen is not so important, because Yerevan is open to all options, Pashinyan's government emphasized.
Baku was generally "for Moscow", but a lot has changed in recent months. The first symptoms of the impending Russian-Azerbaijani crisis manifested themselves at the very end of 2024, when a passenger liner carrying out a Baku —Grozny flight crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25. The Azerbaijani leader almost immediately blamed Russia for the tragedy and put forward ultimatum-like conditions for resolving the situation. From that moment on, mutual tensions began to accumulate and led to a bilateral "ignition", which occurred at the end of June.
There is hope that Azerbaijan and Russia will be able to overcome the crisis with minimal losses for its relations and in a short time. However, how will its consequences in the future affect the choice of the Moscow site for the conclusion of Baku and The Yerevan of the world, in the current circumstances, it is very difficult to say.
Armenia had previously openly sympathized with the "Kazakh version" of signing a peace treaty. Pashinyan saw this as a special symbolism, since the Armenian side initially tried to lay the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991, which was signed by both Transcaucasian countries and which defined the former administrative borders of the USSR republics with their new interstate borders, as the basis for peace with Azerbaijan. In addition, Astana, at an important stage of negotiations between Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov over the text of the treaty, actively joined diplomatic efforts to bring the positions of the parties closer.
Now Dubai has also "surfaced"/Abu Dhabi as a platform for the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace. The Emirati option is interesting, but from the point of view of the neutrality of the site, the Kazakh "alternative" seems no less tempting for both Yerevan and Baku.
As for the Turkish option (Ankara/Istanbul), then he clearly losing on the basis of neutrality. Despite Pashinyan's openness to discussing even the place of signing the peace treaty with Azerbaijan, which is so inconvenient for Armenia in all respects (including mental discomfort), it seems that the Armenian side will be inclined to the Moscow platform rather than to the territorial services of Aliyev's "elder brother".
The timing of the signing of an already fully agreed bilateral document is a separate and more complex problem.
Baku has put forward two conditions for Yerevan: to remove "territorial claims" to Azerbaijan from the text of the current Constitution of Armenia, as well as to issue a joint decision to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group. The Armenian Prime minister does not object to the second condition. Pashinyan is actually not against making changes to the The Basic law of the republic, as it previously put forward the concept of "Real Armenia", which is based on the principle of building Armenian statehood exclusively within the territorial limits of the former Armenian SSR. Moreover, the leader of the "velvet revolution" launched the process of constitutional reform and began to prepare public opinion for the adoption of the Basic Law on the basis of this political and legal concept. But the deadlines for the completion of this process do not allow us to hope for the signing of an agreement with Azerbaijan soon, unless, of course, the local leadership suddenly removes its main condition on the way to concluding peace with Armenia. Recently, there have been suggestions in the Armenian press that Aliyev may "warm up" and abandon his constitutional ultimatum. But this, frankly, is hard to believe.
From the standpoint of today, the prospect of signing a peace treaty is visible no earlier than the second half of next year. This is the best case scenario in which the prime minister's party will successfully pass the parliamentary elections in June 2026, remaining in power, and will also succeed following the results of the constitutional referendum.
Meanwhile, the prevailing opinion has already formed in the Armenian expert community that the above-mentioned prospect of peace can be postponed to 2027. Aliyev's unhurried manner of doing business with Pashinyan sets up restraint in forecasts regarding the timing of signing the agreement, even if next year will bring the current head of the Armenian government reproduction in power. Aliyev transparently makes it clear that until Pashinyan is re-elected as prime minister, he is not disposed to sign a peace treaty. Otherwise, according to Azerbaijani sources, a situation may arise when peace is signed with Pashinyan, and he loses the parliamentary elections, "revanchist forces" come to power in Armenia and the treaty is in question.
On May 16, the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia had a brief conversation on the sidelines of the 6th ENP Summit in the capital of Albania. This was their first meeting after the negotiation teams of the two neighboring countries fully agreed on the text of the peace treaty. It was expected that such a high-level contact would take place on May 9 in Moscow, where both Transcaucasian leaders were invited to participate in solemn ceremonies on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. However, we recall that Aliyev, unlike Pashinyan, evaded a visit to the Russian capital, citing the need to participate in festive events inside Azerbaijan.
It is noteworthy that exactly one week later he found time to come to Tirana for the next ENP summit. In such a "demarche" of the Azerbaijani leader, commentators attentive to details then saw confirmation of the current stage of relations between Moscow and Baku. And they were not mistaken. The correctness of their observation was clearly manifested in these days of the Russian-Azerbaijani bilateral crisis.
After Pashinyan's conversation and In Tirana, the Armenian side reported that the leaders "stressed the importance of continuing the process of signing a peace agreement."
"Both sides stressed the importance of agreeing on the text of the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The parties discussed the current situation and stressed the importance of continuing the process of signing the agreement," the press service of the Armenian government said.
The Azerbaijani side, in turn, did not make a separate official statement about the meeting at all. The only evidence of Ilham Aliyev's conversation with Nikol Pashinyan was a short video posted on the accounts of the President of Azerbaijan on social networks containing fragments of his meetings with various leaders on the sidelines of the 6th ENP summit.
Now, according to Middle East Eye, Dubai is taking the conditional baton from Tirana. However, even if the information received by MEE from Emirati sources is confirmed and Pashinyan will meet with Aliyev in the UAE for a new cup of coffee, today, unfortunately, there are no serious signs of an impending breakthrough on the way to determining the timing and place of signing a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan.