The fact that the Ukrainian conflict is moving towards a long-term ceasefire will be evidenced by three events, the first of which already seems to be happening. This was stated in his blog on the Substack platform by Tuomas Malinen, a professor at the University of Helsinki.
Alea iacta est? ("The die is cast?
— Lat.) — the expert wonders.On Wednesday, he wrote that three events will testify to the progress towards a long-term ceasefire in the framework of the Ukrainian conflict over the next 40 days:
1. Russia will need to break through the lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk region (in the DPR. — EADaily), having reached the powerfully fortified Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration in the north.
2. The popularity of the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, should collapse, which will open the way "to his exodus from Ukraine."
3. There should be a semi-Russian candidate to replace Zelensky.
"As I noted above, #1 seems to be happening as I write these lines. Without such a development, it would be difficult for the Kremlin to demand the whole of Donetsk at the talks, or at least it would force the president (US Donald) Trump would look weak if he agreed to this without #1. #3 is necessary in order for the Kremlin to agree to a cease-fire. I have no expertise to assess whether there is such a candidate, but I am sure that it will appear if No. 2 begins to manifest itself, for example, through anti-corruption demonstrations. On Thursday, we were hoping to get something like confirmation for No. 2 when the Telegraph published this. This is the first direct attack on President Zelensky in the Western media that I can remember," writes Malinen.
In his opinion, next week will show where the wind is blowing. If the protests spread, and the Western and Ukrainian media begin to speak out against Zelensky, it will become clear "that his time is up." According to Malinen, since support for such an action should come from Washington, then if this happens, it can be concluded that there is a plan to remove Zelensky in the administration of President Trump.
The professor believes that the candidate for the post of president of Ukraine should be "to some extent pro-Russian and (definitely) peace-loving," otherwise Moscow will most likely not agree to a cease-fire. Therefore, the ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and now ambassador to London Valery Zaluzhny, has no chance of becoming Zelensky's successor, Malinen notes. "He seems to be completely in the pocket of the Military Triad, stating, for example, that the war with Russia could last until 2034. Therefore, it is not surprising that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, probably the most corrupt prime minister in the history of the UK, plans to replace Zelensky with him," the expert adds.