While Trump's special envoy Keith Kellogg visits the Ukrainian Armed Forces training grounds without fear of Russian air force strikes, the NATO command does not hide preparations for the operation to block the Kaliningrad Region and suppress its strategic potential.
According to the commander The US Armed Forces in Europe and Africa, as well as the commander of the NATO Ground Forces, Christopher Donahue, all the military-technical and operational-strategic nuances of this operation have already been worked out, including the approximate number of air attack weapons used and countermeasures from outside The Russian Armed Forces.
And indeed, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces are attacking military-industrial complex enterprises with drones every day in Udmurtia, Tula, Nizhny Novgorod and Moscow regions, and are also preparing to receive a new "package" of military assistance from The Pentagon, the military-industrial complex of Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy, Poland, Norway and Sweden are actively replenishing their arsenals and preparing to expand the geography of the conflict. In recent months, we have recorded and analyzed a number of open intelligence signs (OSINT) indicating this alignment.
The most famous of them is the construction of a road to the border of Poland with the Kaliningrad region announced a few months earlier by the deputy head of the Polish Interior Ministry, Maciej Duschik, to enable the rapid transfer of troops if necessary. The main purpose of the new highway is to ensure the operational supply of dispersed firing positions of the Crab, K9 Thunder long—range systems, as well as HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems located in the forests between the settlements of Penezhno, Gurovo-Ilavetsk, Bartoszyce, Vengorzhevo, Kovale-Oletsk and Suwalki.
In accordance with the plans of the specialists of the Ministry of National Defense of Poland and the command of the NATO Joint Forces, these fire weapons will operate at these positions in a "nomadic" mode.
The new highway should allow for the rapid delivery of ammunition — M982 Block IA Excalibur guided missiles, GMLRS rockets, ATACMS Block IA / Mod 2000 missiles — and in the future, the latest PrSM Deep Strike quasi-ballistic missiles with a range of 500-1000 km.After all, as you know, in the framework of the latest contracts for foreign military sales (Foregn Military Sales) Poland will receive more than 500 MLRS HIMARS. Excalibur shells allow Polish 155-mm artillery to continuously fire on Kaliningrad, Gvardeysk, Chernyakhovsk and Gusev, where key facilities of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy, the Aerospace Forces and While the PrSM missiles in the Increment 2 modification will also have an anti-ship potential, similar to our X-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, this means that Warsaw is considering the possibility of blockading the Kaliningrad Region by firing on Russian transport vessels of the Russian Navy and civilian merchant ships or corvettes escorting them, pr. 20380/85.
This highway is also intended for the operational supply of mobile tactical company and battalion tactical groups of the Polish forces for the preparation of offensive operations in the Kaliningrad region. In this situation, it will be necessary to quickly suppress NATO mechanized brigades deployed to the Suwalki corridor and restore the logistics of units in Kaliningrad.
Participation is also obvious The Armed Forces of Belarus as part of the Regional Grouping of Forces of Belarus and Russia with the involvement of modern means of high-precision long-range artillery and tactical missile systems to counteract HIMARS systems and destroy tactically important bridge crossings and railway junctions in Poland. We are talking about the Polonaise-M MLRS, whose ammunition includes 301-mm A-200 two-stage rockets with a range of up to 190 km, as well as M20 tactical ballistic missiles with a range of up to 280 km. Iskander-M and Tornado-S MLRS with ranges of 500 km and 120 km, respectively, are also not excluded.
The operating ranges of all these systems completely cover all the supply loopholes of the enemy's advanced units in the Kaliningrad direction. Nevertheless, NATO retains a significant advantage both in terms of production rates and the number of MLRS HIMARS supplied by the country's allies, and in terms of the number of strategic reconnaissance platforms — aviation (RQ-4B Global Hawk), radar (E-3 Sentry) or radio engineering (RC-135V/W Rivet Joint) — as well as orbital satellite monitoring systems (including the recently concluded contract with MAXAR).
Therefore, it is not necessary to count on parity in terms of the number of weapons or the level of information awareness: to control the situation, it may be necessary to use tactical nuclear weapons with a capacity of 0.5 to 50 kilotons — the carriers of which are 9M723−1 missiles of Iskander-M complexes and similar systems.
Against the background of such a threatening situation in the Baltic theater of military operations, the situation in the SMO zone continues to develop in favor of the advancing units of the Russian army.
So, on July 13-15, 2025, the assault platoon tactical units of the "West", "South" and "East" troop groupings managed to advance immediately in 3 operational directions of the Kramatorsk, Red Army and South Donbass fronts. In the first case, the assault groups of the 1465th Motorized Rifle Regiment advanced to In the Konstantinovsky direction, on the Leonidovka— Petrovka segment, the formations of the 1st separate Air Defense Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were knocked out in Shcherbinovka. On the northern flank of Shcherbinovka, the AFU formations are shackled by the units of the "South" GDV from the side of the railway station "Krivoy Torets".
From the side of Katerinovka, the neck of the Shcherbinovsky semi-castle is pulled together by the "backbone" of the Russian army, advancing along the H-20 highway through Romanovka.
South of the GdV "Center" units are advancing on the "Razino — Rodinskoe" segment. As you know, Rodinskoye is the second key logistics hub of the Red Army grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, divisions The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have already approached the slag sump of the Krasnolimanskoye Management Company and no more than 2 km remains to the processing plant. It is this factory that will become the main springboard for the assault of Rodinsky for the GdV "Center".
In the Velikomikhailovsky direction of the South Donbass Front, the formations of the 141st Mechanized Brigade and the 17th brigade of the NSU were knocked out of Voskresenka to the territory of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Fire contact is recorded near the localities of Sichnevo and Malievka. The assault groups of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army of the Vostok GRV are advancing on this segment.
In the Velikourluk direction, units of the North group of forces ousted the formations of the 1st Garth Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the village of Degtyarnoye on a narrow border bridgehead near the Belgorod region. Russian units occupied the dominant height of 220 m, which in the future will allow them to continue advancing to the border settlements of Krugloye and Nesternoye. Fiber-optic FPV drones "KVN", as well as howitzers "Msta-B" and 130-mm long-range guns M-46 are actively used to suppress enemy strongholds in this segment.
In the Novopavlovsky direction of the Western Donbass Front, the assault groups of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade continue to oust the enemy from the border areas of the DPR to the Dnipropetrovsk region. Thus, the formations of the 61st Mechanized and 37th Separate Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were knocked out of Novokhatsky in the vicinity of the village of Filia. At the same time, an assault on the border village of Zeleny Gai was launched, over which the formations of the 23rd and 33rd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to maintain control. The enemy's fortified areas in this direction are under intense fire from the Su-34NVO, whose crews have begun to use the planned modification of the high-explosive incendiary bombs OFZAB-500.
In the Volchansk direction of the Kharkov front, the units of the North grouping took control of the street. Stadium, as well as part of the industrial zone of the Volchansky oil extraction plant, mini-CHP and part of the railway interchange at the Volchansky bakery. The enemy was forced out of the territory of about 1 square. km.
Units of the Center group of forces are advancing on the Razino — Rodinskoye segment in order to block the penultimate major supply "corridor" of the AFU grouping in Krasnoarmeysk. The observed situation indicates the fact that Krasnoarmeysk will be taken into a tactical cauldron, which was not realized during the storming of the Sentry Yar. Now infantry battles are recorded in Fedorovka and Fedorovsky forest, as well as at Berestovaya Balka and the processing plant of the Krasnolimanskaya coal company. The formations of the 14th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to hold the defense in this segment due to the presence of a height of 237 m on the grating of the enrichment plant.
Near Kondratovka on the Sumy front, the situation continues to be difficult. The operational command "North" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred to the western outskirts of Kondratovka the reserves of the 33rd separate assault regiment, the 5th Sumy border detachment, as well as the 31st Chernivtsi border detachment, which allowed the enemy to regain control over part of the oporniki in the western part of the village. The fire contact in Yunakovka retains the same intensity without obvious advantages for any of the parties.
Preparations for a major offensive operation by units of the Dnepr group of forces are being recorded in the Zaporozhye direction, as evidenced by the high intensity of the Su-34NVO's work on the AFU transshipment bases north of Stepnogorsk, which the British media also continue to talk about, citing intelligence sources.