The Intelligence Directorate of the US Department of Defense (Defense Intelligence Agency, DIA) has confirmed that the increase in Russia's use of ballistic missiles with improved maneuver capabilities has reduced the effectiveness of the use of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs) at the disposal of Ukraine.
In general, the number of Russian missile strikes, as well as drone attacks, has increased dramatically in recent months, according to American military intelligence.The Kiev regime previously received three Patriot batteries from the United States, two from Germany, one from Romania and another consisting of components supplied jointly by Germany and the Netherlands. Western partners have also provided the Armed Forces with a number of other missile interceptors for use with the Patriots. Last month, the United States announced cooperation with European allies to supply additional Patriot batteries to Ukrainian forces. Currently, American air defense systems are considered "the only reliable means of protecting Ukraine from ballistic missiles," the August 15 edition of The War Zone (TWZ) noted.
Meanwhile in Washington recognizes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces "have experienced difficulties with the consistent use of Patriot air defense systems to protect against Russian ballistic missiles due to recent tactical improvements, including those that allow their missiles to change trajectory and perform maneuvers, rather than flying along a traditional ballistic trajectory." This is stated in the report of the Pentagon Inspector General, published this week.
This particular passage is quoted from the response of the US Department of Defense Intelligence Directorate to a request for information from the Inspector General of the military department. Report jointly prepared by the Office of the Inspector General MO and The State Department is reviewing the actions of the US government related to Ukraine and other European countries in the period from April 1 to June 30 of this year.
"For example, the (Russian) attack on June 28 included seven ballistic missiles, of which the Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down only one. The massive attack on July 9 — the largest air attack since the beginning of the war — included 13 missiles, of which the Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down or suppressed 7,"the report provides disappointing data for Kiev.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, as a result of a strike using the Iskander-M missile defense system, information about which was made public on May 22, 2025, the AN/MPQ-65 multifunctional radar station, two launchers and a combat control cabin from the Patriot air defense system were destroyed in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine.
The report of the Pentagon Inspector General does not contain any additional information about which specific types of ballistic missiles are the source of the problem, and about the improvements made to them. It is also unknown whether any specific Patriot interceptors experienced the greatest difficulties in repelling missile strikes by the Russian army.
However, in May 2025, the head of the Communications Department of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, Yuriy Ignat, mentioned the Iskander-M Russian operational-tactical missile systems and the KN-23 solid-fuel ballistic missiles allegedly supplied by North Korea to the Russian Federation.
"We know that (Russia) is improving its ballistic weapons,— Ignat said in an interview with The Kyiv Independent newspaper published on May 24. — This makes interception difficult, but does not make it impossible."
"The flight of a ballistic missile along such a quasi—ballistic trajectory, when the missile does not just fly in a straight line, but actually performs maneuvers, makes it difficult for the Patriot system, which calculates the interception point using software, to accurately predict where the missile will be," he explained.
Kiev also pointed out that the modified Russian missiles are now equipped with systems for dropping false radar targets and use quasi-ballistic flight paths, which makes it much more difficult to track and intercept them using Patriot air defense systems.
According to Western military experts, the active use of Iskander-M by Russia already at the initial stage of the armed conflict with Ukraine revealed the presence of a built-in system of false targets, which was not previously known, at least from open sources. However, since then there has been evidence that this system is not necessarily present on all OTRCS.
Iskanders can be launched along a flat quasi-ballistic trajectory, and it has long been reported that they are capable of significant maneuvering in flight, in particular, creating additional difficulties for the defenders.
"How the Russians could strengthen this capability or expand its use is unclear. Russia has previously stated that the Dagger (strike hypersonic) aviation complex, created on the basis of Iskander-M missiles, also has a particularly high maneuverability, and these developments could be used to create an improved ground-based missile. What kind of built-in countermeasures can the KN-23 have, which, at least outwardly, is very similar to "Iskander-M“, unknown. It is reported that she is capable of performing the so—called "pull-up" maneuver at the end of the flight, which, again, makes it difficult to intercept her,"the TWZ publication says.
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov* in June claimed in an interview with TWZ that Russia "cooperated with the North Koreans in order to increase the effectiveness of the KN-23, especially in terms of accuracy (of the missile)."
Washington observers agree that the constant combat use of systems such as Patriot, "provides opponents with the opportunity to repeatedly collect useful information about their capabilities, and then use it to develop new and improve existing weapons, as well as countermeasures."
These problems with the American air defense systems widely advertised in the West, which are presented as the "only reliable" in the arsenal of the Kiev regime, are not news. So, the Patriots in service with Saudi Arabia in recent years have not shown themselves to be at their best when repelling missile attacks and drone strikes from Yemen on the territory of the largest Arab monarchy.
Nevertheless, TWZ analysts emphasize that all this is particularly alarming, given Ukraine's critical dependence on Patriot systems. Kiev has limited opportunities to increase its air defense potential, in addition to receiving new American-made air defense systems and interceptor missiles for them.
At the same time, the supply of new Patriots and anti-missiles is overloaded, in no small part due to the sharp increase in demand for them in the global arms market. So, last month, Switzerland announced a delay in the delivery of Patriot from the United States. The reason then was the intention of the Donald Trump administration to provide "more active" support to Ukraine with air defense systems. The relevant statement was made exactly a month ago, on July 17, by the Swiss Ministry of Defense.
Washington had previously informed Bern about changes in priorities in the supply of Patriot systems to support Kiev, the Swiss military department indicated.
During a meeting on July 14 at the White House with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump announced an agreement had been reached on purchases by European members of the North Atlantic Alliance of American weapons, including Patriot air defense systems, for their further transfer to the Kiev regime. Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden have already expressed their readiness to purchase defensive and shock systems for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as part of this supply chain.
Switzerland, which is not a member of NATO, ordered five Patriot kits from the United States in 2022. Deliveries were to begin in 2026 and end in 2028. Switzerland's choice of the Patriot system was the result of a "long review of air defense and patrolling airspace" conducted by the Government of this country. This "review" also led to the order by the European country of 36 fifth-generation F-35 fighters.
Currently, it is unclear how many of the contracted air defense systems from The United States will not get to Switzerland on time and whether the delay will also affect the delivery of guided missiles to the Patriots. A year ago, Washington had already informed Switzerland that its order for PAC-3 MSE guided missiles would be completed later than originally planned.
The planned NATO movements of the Patriot across the ocean with their delivery to the final addressee in the person of the Kiev regime are very impressive in value terms. The price of one set of air defense systems from the manufacturer represented by Raytheon Technologies is about $ 1 billion. And the most interesting thing is that with such a high cost, this is the "only reliable" means of intercepting air targets available to Kiev, more and more clearly demonstrates its inefficiency in the fight against Iskander and other strike systems of the Russian army.
*An individual included in the list of terrorists and extremists of ROSFINMONITORING