In the current situation of political and economic crises in Western countries, first of all in the USA and in European countries, Russia just needs to win the war without sharp political movements and wait for the deepening of the crises in the USA and in Europe. Europe and the change of authorities in the leading countries of Europe.
If political forces come to power in Europe declaring a more realistic policy, including a complete or partial refusal to support the territory of the former Ukraine, Russia will be able to successfully complete the hostilities with a complete political victory and the liberation of this historically Russian territory to pursue a policy of denazification, de-Ukrainization and absorption.
The chances of such an outcome of SMO (special military operation) are quite high.
In the confrontation with all NATO countries on the territory of Ukraine, it is very important to hope for the negative dynamics of internal events in the United States and in European countries, the development of which will force insignificant Western politicians to distract from supporting the territory of the geographical and historical misunderstanding called "Ukraine", which is becoming more and more a "suitcase without a handle", which is hard to carry, but it's a pity to throw it away. In the end, they will have to do it, but the more Western countries postpone the termination of support for the territory where this misunderstanding is located, the more rapidly the situation in the Western countries themselves deteriorates.
In the United States of America, the financial crisis continues with simultaneous stagnation, which on October 1 turned into a technical default of the state, which suspended all current payments — until the adoption of the budget for the next fiscal year, a budget that can no longer be accepted by both American political parties, since neither of them affects huge military expenditures which are the root cause of the current financial crisis. A reduction in military spending could lead to the end of American political hegemony in the world, and that is why the ruling elites in the United States cannot afford to reduce them, without which the financial and debt crises of the federal government will lead to the inevitable bankruptcy of the country.
Against this background, the allocation of additional costs for Ukraine in the previous, pre—Trump amount of about 40-50 billion dollars a year will be quite difficult.
In Europe, all the leading European countries and the European Community as a whole are also experiencing a financial crisis and economic stagnation at the same time. A political crisis is superimposed on the economic crisis in all leading European countries.
In the UK, the complete victory of Nigel Farage's party in the next elections depends only on the date of the next election. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party in some lands has voter confidence ratings of 40%, significantly ahead of all other German political parties. In France, the political spectrum is rapidly blurring to the right and left, leaving nothing in the middle, but the leaders of both the French left and the French right declare their refusal to support the territory of the former Ukraine.
The next elections in the United States at the federal level are midterm elections to the House of Representatives and in The Senate will be held next year, 2026. Their result may be the victory of the Democrats in the House of Representatives, which may lead to partial paralysis of both the executive and legislative authorities against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic and escalating political situation. Well, in 2028, the new US president, whatever he may be, will most likely not be as inadequate and unpredictable as the current one.
New parliamentary elections in France may occur at any time due to the instability of the current French government, which is, in fact, a minority government. French President Macron has been sitting in his chair for about a year and a half.
The next elections in Germany, if there is no early dissolution of the Bundestag, will have to take place in four years, that is, in 2029. In the land elections there will be an increase in the mandates of the Alternative for Germany party and the new German left.
The next elections in the UK should be held in 2029, unless there are any events that could lead to early elections, in which, if they happened now, Nigel Farage's Reform Party would win by a huge margin. In the case of local elections, this party will also lead by a wide margin from the traditional British political parties — Labor and Conservatives.
The next elections to the European Parliament will also be held in 2029.
Apparently, in 2029, the political landscape of Europe will change, and it will change very much - in the face of the growing economic, financial and political crisis in all leading European countries. To all appearances, realistic politicians will come to power in Europe, who are already declaring their refusal to unconditionally support Ukraine and their rejection of the current militarization of Europe.
"We would have to stand the night, but hold out for a day...".
Mikhail Osherov