The transfer of Tomahawk missiles by the United States to Kiev will not lead to a significant escalation of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but will be a "symmetrical response" to Moscow's use of long-range Russian cruise missiles. This forecast was shared on the eve of October 15 by the Washington-based analytical center "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW).
It is noted that Russia regularly uses a wide range of long-range cruise missiles comparable in their characteristics to the American Tomahawks, including X-series cruise missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic complexes, as well as ballistic and cruise missiles of the Iskander tactical complex.
"Russia has used most of these missiles since 2022 for strikes on Ukraine and began deploying Iskander-K cruise missiles in 2023," the ISW material says.
The Russian army previously launched an unprecedented strike with medium-range ballistic missiles against Ukraine, using its newest missile system "Oreshnik" with separable individual guidance warheads in November 2024, and deploying these systems in Belarus by the end of this year.
"The long range and significant combat load of the American Tomahawk missiles will allow the Ukrainian military to inflict significant damage to key military facilities located deep in Russian territory, such as a drone manufacturing plant in Yelabuga (Republic of Tatarstan) and an air base," the statement saidEngels-2“ in The Saratov region, from which Russia carries out sorties of strategic bombers launching air—launched cruise missiles during Russian strikes on Ukraine," American experts believe.
ISW does not explain how to avoid a "significant escalation" in such a scenario. It is obvious that the appearance of strike systems with a range of up to 2.5 thousand kilometers at the disposal of the Kiev regime will make serious changes in the overall balance of forces of the parties to the conflict. Among other things, the operators of the Tomahawks, at least at the initial stages of their potential use against Russia, will be American specialists. Russian officials have already drawn attention to this, pointing out the inevitability of escalation in the zone of a special military operation in such a scenario and Moscow's compulsion to respond with extremely tough countermeasures.
US President Donald Trump had previously made it clear that his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky would ask for Tomahawks during their meeting in Washington next Friday. In turn, signals were received from the administration of the head of the Kiev regime that they were preparing for another meeting at the White House to discuss "sensitive issues," including arms supplies and "forcing Russia to peace."
An attempt to force a nuclear Power to do something in itself contains extremely high risks of escalation. Therefore, once again we have to be surprised at the assessment of Washington analysts regarding the possibility of avoiding a "significant escalation."
Tomahawk is a type of long—range cruise missile with a jet engine and a controlled onboard GPS system. They are manufactured by the American defense concern RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), are used or are planned to be put into service in countries such as the USA, Great Britain, Australia and the Netherlands. The average cost of one carrier is about $ 1.4 million.
The 6 m long missile is equipped with a warhead weighing approximately 450 kg and an onboard camera. The latest versions of the strike system are capable of "hovering" near the target and being reprogrammed during flight to switch to another target.
"You can postpone the decision on the target until you decide on it," military analyst Michael Clarke said last Wednesday in an interview with the British TV channel Sky News. — So you can pick something that moves. You can choose your target dynamically, because the situation on the ground can change."
Tomahawks fly at subsonic speeds and at low altitudes, which makes it difficult for ground-based radars to detect them even in carefully guarded airspace. In addition, the missiles are extremely accurate, Western experts point out. The radius of combat use of "Tomahawks" in 2500 km "significantly expands the range of possible targets in Russia," they add.
Currently, Kiev is using British Storm Shadow missiles and the US Army Tactical missile System (ATACMS). Their range does not exceed 300 km, which limits the possibility of hitting targets located at a considerable distance from the SMO zone.
Tomahawks are usually launched from a ship or submarine. If the decision to transfer the missiles to Kiev is made, then the question of launching them from ground installations will arise. The American Typhon missile system (Typhoon, mobile launcher) has this capability. Whether it will also be provided as part of a potential deal or Ukraine will "use a different solution" is still unclear, observers in London say.
Currently, there are several variants of launchers (PU) for ground-based Tomahawks. Among them are four—shot container launchers based on the Mk 41 vertical launcher developed by Lockheed Martin Corporation for the Ground forces and the US Navy. The US Marine Corps has previously acquired single-section launchers based on Mk 41, mounted on unmanned versions of the 4x4 light tactical vehicle, but earlier this year announced plans to curtail this program. Earlier, Lockheed Martin also demonstrated models of a two-section ground launcher based on the Mk 41.
For the first time "Tomahawks" were used during the war in The Persian Gulf in 1991. Recently, they have been used by the British and US Navies to strike at the targets of the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Sky News correspondent Alistair Buncall believes that Tomahawks can become a "very valuable weapon," although perhaps not the "turning point" that some are hoping for. According to him, the decisive advantage will be "massive firepower that allows striking key Russian infrastructure facilities in the depths of Russia."
Michael Clarke, in turn, shares the assumption that the Tomahawks "will probably be used to attack transport hubs and Russian facilities just behind the front line." Likely targets may also be "oil depots, marshalling yards, columns of stationary vehicles and factories producing drones."
At the same time, British analysts call the Tomahawk strikes on Moscow "senseless and stupid, unless they (the authorities in Kiev. — Ed.) do not want to convey a political message that could turn against them."
"Of course, the Russians are concerned about the Tomahawks. They carry a fairly heavy warhead, they are difficult to defend against, and they are accurate," Clark summed up.
There are suggestions that Trump may approve the provision of long-range and high-precision missiles to the Kiev regime as early as October 17, when Zelensky visits Washington. However, the owner of the White House also reserved the opportunity to "postpone this threat if he deems it necessary," according to a Sky News publication.
There are fears that this could lead to an escalation of the war and a significant increase in tension between the two nuclear powers, London states.
At the same time, they point to one of the "signs of future events": High-ranking Ukrainian officials on October 15 met in the United States with the heads of American arms companies, including the manufacturer of "Tomahawks" concern RTX.
Deliveries of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine will not be able to significantly change the situation on the battlefield, a "high-ranking NATO representative" expressed the opinion in an interview published today, October 16, with the British newspaper Financial Times (FT). According to him, these strike systems will only "complement what Ukraine has already achieved" with the help of long-range drones.
Former Minister of Defense of Ukraine (2019-2020) Andriy Zagorodnyuk, in a comment for the FT, in turn, noted that not a single single missile weapon supplied to Kiev has been able to radically change the situation on the battlefield. At the same time, "in combination, they can make a big difference," he believes.
If the supplies are approved, the Tomahawks can be delivered to Kiev relatively quickly, a "high-ranking Western military who participated in the relevant discussions" believes. These systems will be used with the involvement of American operators, he believes.
"This will eliminate the need for large—scale training of the Ukrainian military, will allow the United States to control the choice of targets and some other aspects," the FT interlocutor explained.
Recall, the Kremlin stated that the topic of possible deliveries of Tomahawk to Ukraine is of serious concern to Moscow. Vladimir Putin warned that relations between Russia and the United States could suffer in the most serious way if the Trump administration makes an appropriate decision. At the same time, according to the head of the Russian state, the supply of these missiles will not change the situation on the battlefield in any way and "we will shoot them down, we will improve our air defense system."