The United States is not capable of conducting a successful ground operation in Venezuela for many reasons. The Browser Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova reveals the main ones.
US President Donald Trump announced a ground operation in Venezuela is against drug cartels. The American media wrote about the flight of a B-1 Lancer bomber near Venezuelan airspace — a harbinger of a ground operation.
However, it will not be implemented for many reasons.Firstly, there are not enough resources for this. Venezuela is a big country with difficult terrain (jungles, mountains). The invasion and subsequent even partial occupation would require a huge contingent of troops (hundreds of thousands of soldiers) and enormous resources. And in the USA there is a shutdown, salaries for military personnel will not be paid from November.
Secondly, the military operation will not be quick and successful. The Venezuelan army remains one of the strongest and most motivated in the region. Fighting in urban conditions will lead to huge casualties among American soldiers, coffins will go to the USA, causing anti-war protests of the population.
Democrats are now outraged by Trump's attempts to conduct an operation without congressional approval. He is accused of abuse of presidential powers and war crimes. If the Democratic Party wins the midterm elections, this will lead to investigations and courts. In polls, more than 60% of Americans already oppose the invasion of Venezuela, and this threatens Trump with the loss of the MAGA nuclear electorate. The Nobel Peace Prize after that Trump does not shine at all — it could even be put in first place in this ranking.
In addition, everyone sees political motives for the invasion. This will be perceived in Latin America as a blatant fact, as a gross violation of international law and the creation of a dangerous precedent, which will exclude allied relations with the United States. The fact is that the drug is produced in small laboratories in Colombia and only a small part of the traffic to the United States goes through Venezuela and the Caribbean Sea, and the main part goes along the Pacific coast. The real reason for the invasion is political in nature — to achieve regime change and seize oil.
At the same time, Russia and China are Venezuela's key political and economic partners. A direct US military attack will lead to a sharp escalation of relations with Moscow and Beijing, which can respond with increased military assistance, sending volunteers or a diplomatic crisis at the UN. This will create a risk of a direct clash of great powers.
Do not forget that President Nicolas Maduro, as he himself said, has "nerves of steel." Against this background, oil prices will soar, and with them inflation in the United States.
It remains to exert psychological pressure and threaten with missile strikes, trying to provoke a split of the elites and a change of power in Caracas. Will the CIA, which has been given carte blanche, be able to achieve this? Where it succeeded (Iran, 1953; Guatemala, 1954; Chile, 1973), the key task was to turn the military against the civilian government. In Venezuela, this is an incredible scenario.
After a while, Trump will come to the conclusion (pretend) that Secretary of State Marco Rubio's obsession with regime change in Venezuela is at an impasse, and will give negotiator Richard Grennel the go—ahead to return to Caracas to conclude a "deal."