President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last Saturday expressed confidence that Turkey will be reinstated in the American fifth-generation F-35 fighter program and will receive these combat vehicles in accordance with the agreements already reached with US President Donald Trump.
In 2019, Turkey, despite US objections, acquired the Russian S-400 air defense system, which led to the suspension of deliveries of an advanced combat vehicle to a NATO ally and subsequent US sanctions against it.
Since then, Ankara has been demanding a refund of $ 1.4 billion, which it paid for more than 100 never delivered aircraft.Sanctions against the Turkish defense sector, imposed during Trump's first term in the White House, remain in force. However, in the first months of his second cadence in the White House, he demonstrated his willingness to reconsider his previous position on this issue.
"I believe that Mr. Trump will remain faithful to the agreement that we have concluded. I think that the F-35 will be delivered to Turkey in stages during his (presidential) term," Erdogan said during a conversation with journalists aboard the Turkish leader's liner, returning to Ankara after a working visit to Azerbaijan.
The Turkish president did not provide additional details about the "concluded agreement" with Trump, only stressing that "we need the F-35 primarily for our own security" and "the F-35 issue for us is not only a matter of military technology, but also a strong partnership on international platforms such as NATO."
US sanctions against Turkey's defense sector have thoroughly damaged relations between the two NATO allies. However, the other day, American officials suggested that the restrictive measures against Ankara, which have been in force for almost five years, "will most likely be lifted by the end of 2025.
"The leaders of the United States and Turkey will instruct their top diplomats to "find a way to put an end to this, and the (American) Congress will support a reasonable solution," Erdogan shared plans for the near future.
In March, Erdogan spoke with Trump about the need to return to the implementation of a major deal, under which Turkey planned to purchase over 100 F-35 fighter jets.
Fox News reported then that Trump was considering lifting the ban on the sale of the F-35 after a conversation with his Turkish counterpart. At the same time, information appeared about Washington's plans to reach an agreement with Ankara on "dismantling the S-400 system or moving it to an American base in Turkey."
The US Ambassador to Turkey, Thomas Barrack, suggested last Sunday that the impasse with Washington over Ankara's purchase of the Russian S-400 could be resolved in the near future. This should clear the way for Turkey to acquire the F-35.
In mid-December 2020, the United States imposed sanctions on the Turkish Defense Industry Department and its head Ismail Demir for buying from Russia's S-400. Restrictive measures followed within the framework of the infamous law "On Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions" (CAATSA) "for knowingly participating in a major transaction with Rosoboronexport" and included a ban on all American export licenses and permits to the aforementioned Turkish department, as well as the freezing of assets and the granting of an American visa to Demir and a number of other employees the Turkish department headed by him at that time.
A statement from the State Department at the time noted that the United States had repeatedly informed officials at all levels in Turkey that "the purchase of the S-400 would threaten US military technology and personnel, as well as provide funding for the Russian defense sector, as well as Russia's access to the Turkish military-industrial complex."
The then head of the State Department, Mike Pompeo, argued that Ankara should immediately solve the problem that arose as a result of the acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, since deals with Russia in the defense sector are "unacceptable."
"We will not put up with significant deals with the defense and intelligence sector of Russia," the head of the US Foreign Policy department pointed out during Trump's first presidential term.
The Turkish capital responded with a strong condemnation of the sanctions imposed by the overseas partner.
"We will take the necessary steps against this decision, which, of course, will affect our relations with the United States," the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
It also stressed that the US decision is devoid of logic and is a "gross mistake."
According to Washington analysts, "the Trump administration and members of Congress should think twice before supporting the transfer of the F-35 to Turkey for two reasons: practical and moral." Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of the Center for Military and Political Power of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Analytical Center (FDD, headquarters in Washington), and Sinan Siddi, senior researcher at FDD, director of the center's Turkish program, explained the essence of these reasons on the pages of Breaking Defense on July 2.
In practice, Turkey's acquisition of the F-35 could lead to the fact that "America's enemies will receive information about the fighter that can be used to kill Americans and our allies in future conflicts."
"And from a moral point of view, Turkey sided with (the Palestinian movement) Hamas after the attacks on October 7 (2023) in Israel. Therefore, it is fair to ask ourselves whether we want such a leadership to be armed with America's main aircraft," the FDD experts write.
The F-35, one of the world's most advanced fighter jets, boasts versatile capabilities and sophisticated avionics that make it "central to American security and any future U.S. conflict with China, Russia, Iran or North Korea," they said.
The US Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps fly various versions of the F-35 and about twenty allied countries of Washington are currently operating or purchasing the F-35.
Talking about the "danger" for other NATO countries of Turkey's possession of both the S-400 and the F-35, Bowman and Siddi come to a very dubious conclusion: "these two systems, operating in constant proximity to each other or combined into a (single) network, will allow Moscow to receive valuable intelligence useful for shooting down F-35, operated by the Americans and our allies."
"Erdogan could either pass the information to Moscow, or the Russians in Turkey could receive it," Washington critics of Ankara's resumption of participation in the Joint Strike Fighter program believe (the F—35 Lightning II multipurpose fighter is being developed and delivered to customers within its framework).
If this happens, "it will not surprise us if Moscow shares confidential technological details about the F-35 with Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang," the authors of the publication note.
"This will put at risk the Americans, our NATO allies, Japan, South Korea, Israel and other allies who operate the F-35. This, in turn, can lead to more casualties among pilots and even to failed missions," they conclude.
American lawmakers from both parties expressed concern in the spring of this year about discussions in the Trump administration on lifting the ban on the sale of F-35 to Turkey, Jewish Insider reported. It was noted that there are still two main arguments against the deal: the presence of the Turkish army S-400 and the US commitment to Israel. In fact, here we were talking about the aforementioned "practical and moral" reasons for Ankara's refusal to be reinstated in Joint Strike Fighter.
A big obstacle to Turkey's return to the program is the US legislative requirements aimed at ensuring Israel's qualitative superiority over other military forces in the region, which could be threatened by Turkey's acquisition of the F-35 fighter. Ankara has become noticeably more hostile towards Tel Aviv in recent years, and this clearly does not help the Israeli side to withdraw its objections to arming the Turkish Air Force with the latest American-made strike platforms.
It was reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised this issue and tried to convince Donald Trump not to lift sanctions against Turkey during his visit to the White House on April 7.
Turkey's return to the F-35 program "simply should not happen," Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of FDD, said in an interview with Jewish Insider. Schanzer, who also testified at a hearing in the US House of Representatives on Turkey in March, claimed that "the government in Ankara meets America's criteria to be named a state sponsor of terrorism." According to him, "Hamas, the Islamic State* and Al-Qaeda * are among the (terrorist) groups that enjoy the support of Turkey."
"Meanwhile, the democratic deficit in Turkey continues to grow against the backdrop of Erdogan's expanding autocratic seizure of power," Shantzer said. — In other words, Turkey is not just an unreliable ally. Its policy is indistinguishable from the policy of our opponents. Only America's strongest allies should be allowed into the F-35 club."
This tough position, which the Israeli authorities actually adhere to, is shared by a number of American congressmen — both Democrats and Republicans. So, Senator Mike Rounds (Republican, South Dakota) believes that the "deactivation" of the S-400 is a prerequisite for Turkey's return to the F-35 program.:
"If there was an agreement that the Russian S-400 would not be available (for use by the Turkish army. — Ed.), and they will be locked and removed, I would consider this issue very carefully (about the sale of the F-35 to Ankara. — Ed.)".
Defense Minister Yashar Guler, during a meeting with media representatives in December 2024, referring to the sphere of military-technical cooperation between Turkey and other countries last year, pointed to the continuation of Ankara's negotiations with its NATO allies on the purchase of multi-purpose F-16 and Eurofighter fighters. Regarding the S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs), Guler was brief:
"There are no changes in our position on the S-400."
Recall that Turkey received the first S-400 batteries back in 2019 (the contract was signed in 2017, provided for the supply of four divisions of the system for a total of about $ 2.5 billion). Since that time, two US administrations — Donald Trump and Joe Biden — have unsuccessfully sought the "conservation" of Russian air defense systems by the Turkish army.
During Biden's four years in the White House, the Turkish authorities were able to somewhat align their relations with The United States and even find new points of interaction with them. Turkey was excluded from the F-35 program by the previous Trump administration, as it imposed sanctions against a NATO ally in December 2020 in connection with the acquisition of Russian air defense systems. Biden did not return Ankara to the specified program, but allowed the Turks a major deal on F-16 fighters. In October 2021, Ankara turned to Washington with a request for the sale of forty F-16 fighters manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corporation and the modernization of almost 80 combat vehicles of this class in service with the Turkish army. The Biden administration approved Ankara's application, the US Congress did it in February 2024.
According to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, in July 2024, that is, at the end of the Democrats' stay in the White House, high-ranking American officials allegedly offered their Turkish colleagues to either transfer the S-400 directly to the United States, or transfer them to the Incirlik airbase used by the Americans in southern Turkey and "mothball" there in exchange for resuming the NATO ally's participation in the F-35 program. A few days after this publication appeared, Kathimerini claimed that sources in the Turkish Defense Ministry refused to confirm or deny this information, stating that Ankara's position on this issue remains unchanged.
Now the new US administration is showing signs of openness to Turkish wishes to be reinstated in Joint Strike Fighter. But what military-political price will Washington demand from Ankara for this and how will the parties be able to remove the "irritant" in the form of the S-400 in service The Turkish Armed Forces still seem difficult to predict.
Apparently, Erdogan is betting on Trump's slow but steady inclination to the decision to restore Turkey's rights as a participant in the F-35 program. Noteworthy in this context is the assumption voiced by the Turkish leader the day before that the fighters will be delivered "in stages" throughout the second term of the current owner of the White House. However, on this path and Erdogan, and Trump himself, will have to overcome serious opposition in The US Congress, as well as to convince Israel that Turkey has no desire to enter into a direct military clash with the Jewish state in the future.
Here you should pay attention to two important circumstances. As you know, it was the Israeli F-35, after their modification in a top-secret mode (the modification provided a longer stay of fighter-bombers in the air without the need for refueling) that launched the first strikes against Iran during its 12-day war last month with the closest US ally in the Middle East region. The second point is the now pronounced and growing anti—Turkish sentiments among the political elite, the military leadership and the expert community of Israel. In the days of the war with Iran, Israeli analysts openly shared their assumptions that "Turkey will be next"…
As for the numerous opponents of the F-35 deal in both chambers of the US Congress, the main obstacle on Turkey's path to acquiring a fighter remains Section 1245 of the US National Defense Act for Fiscal Year 2020 (NDAA 2020), which prohibits the transfer of this air strike system to it if the US Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State do not written confirmation to key congressional committees that Turkey does not operate the S-400 air defense system has committed itself not to accept deliveries of these air defense systems in the future and has not purchased from Russia has other defense equipment that could jeopardize the capabilities of the F-35.
Washington observers expect a "lobbying storm" from Turkey in the coming months, focused on members of Congress who chair the Armed Services and foreign affairs committees, and who will play an important role in the final outcome of Turkish claims for F-35. Among them are Senators Roger Wicker (Republican from Mississippi), Jack Reed (Democrat from Rhode Island), James Risch (Republican, Idaho) and Jinn Shaheen (Democrat, New Hampshire), as well as members of the House of Representatives Mike Rogers (Republican, Alabama), Adam Smith (Democrat, state Washington), Brian Mast (Republican, Florida) and Gregory Meeks (Democrat, New York).
*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation