While American investors are exploring the possibility of buying out Nord Streams and continuing the Turkish Stream, the European Commission has presented a final roadmap for the complete abandonment of Russian gas. Experts believe that in the current geopolitical situation, the loss of the European market for a Russian company may occur.
At the same time, the restoration of exports through other directions is possible by 2032-2033, they believe.The European Commission has included a phased plan in the final version of the roadmap for the complete abandonment of Russian gas. In the first half of 2026, deliveries under fixed—term contracts should stop, and by January 1, 2028 - under long-term contracts. Brussels is proposing a legislative initiative that, according to European officials, will allow European buyers to declare force majeure in order to break contracts without consequences.
Last year, Russian gas exports to Europe amounted to more than 50 billion cubic meters. Due to the shutdown of Ukrainian transit, volumes will decrease to 36-37 billion cubic meters this year. If we proceed from the plans of the European Commission, then in 2025 supplies may drop below 30 billion cubic meters, and from January 1, 2028 — to zero.
Hungary and Slovakia opposes the plans of the European Commission, but so far Brussels plans to allow them only the validity of all types of contracts until the end of 2027.
The question of what Gazprom should do next is not an idle one. The five-fold drop in gas exports to Europe has already led to a decrease in government revenues.
Moreover, the EU countries are a premium market, due to which the cost of gas in Russia managed to keep it at a low level. It is also unclear whether the East, which has already been announced several years ago, will become an equivalent replacement. The fate of projects in Asia and the Middle East remains vague.And if Europe changes its mind…
"So far, the complete abandonment of Russian gas is a radical proposal of the European Commission, which has a clear opposition in the face of Hungary and Slovakia, as well as a pool of dissenters, such as France or Austria, or a large energy-intensive business. But the pressure is serious, and in order for the proposal not to pass, they need to act more coherently and decisively," said Alexey Grivach, Deputy director of the National Energy Security Fund (NWF).
Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman notes that Europe's rejection of Russian gas, including LNG, is possible and even probable if the geopolitical situation does not change.
"In 2024-2028, the global LNG market will be in a cycle of supply growth — primarily from the United States and Qatar. These additional volumes, according to our estimates, may allow the EU, if it wishes, to abandon Russian LNG in about a year without significant damage to its own economy. So far, Russian pipeline gas continues to be supplied primarily to Hungary and Slovakia and both countries are interested in continuing such deliveries. In the basic scenario, we assume that Hungary and Slovakia will seek an exception from the ban for itself," says Sergey Kaufman.
In this situation, the way out would be a gas hub in Turkey. There have been talks about it for several years. However, so far everything has ended with Bloomberg reporting that Gazprom has abandoned the idea of a Turkish hub, as Turkey wants to control trade, and the region's infrastructure limits supply capacity.
As a result, Gazprom still has Turkey, which buys around 20 billion cubic meters per year, and more than 100 billion cubic meters, which were previously destined for Europe, are already falling out annually. In theory, they should go to the East.
Turn to the East: no one is in a hurry
Theoretically, Gazprom has many options for alternative routes. However, years of negotiations have not yet led to a contract for the Power of Siberia — 2 to China, which would ensure the sale of 50 billion cubic meters from fields that used to work for Europe. Gazprom is also considering the option of deliveries through Kazakhstan with simultaneous gasification of the north-east of the country. We are talking about 40 billion cubic meters. However, this project has not been talked about recently either, and Chinese Ambassador Zhang Hanhui described the project as unrealistic. According to the diplomat, for gas supplies from Russia would have to build a new gas pipeline through Kazakhstan to China, since the country's main consumers are located in the west of the country.
"It's a little far… They are studying, but in general it is unrealistic. I told my Russian partners that this is unrealistic," Zhang Hanhui told RIA Novosti.
Another promising direction is Iran. Russian President Vladimir Putin estimated the possibility of supplying up to 55 billion cubic meters per year. Tehran announced plans to both consume Russian gas and transport it to other countries. However, it is already difficult to guess what will happen in the new conditions.
It is known that there is Uzbekistan, which plans to increase imports from Russia from 3 to 11 billion cubic meters. However, this is incomparable with 100 billion cubic meters to Europe.
"The eastern direction of export has been developing not for three years, but already for two decades. This is a strategic line, not a tactical response to the situation in Europe. The prospects are good. The announced projects are being clearly implemented, and development plans suggest an increase of 2.5 times from the current level of supplies," said Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of the National Economic Development Fund.
He believes that it is difficult to fully compensate for the European direction, but a significant part is possible and this is already happening gradually.
Independent industrial expert Maxim Khudalov does not rule out that within five years Chinese and Kazakh projects can still be implemented and then the loss of Europe will be inconspicuous.
"So far, the East for Gazprom is not comparable to what the European market was before 2022," Sergey Kaufman recalls that before SMO began, Gazprom supplied about 140 billion cubic meters to the EU, and current supplies to China amount to about 38 billion cubic meters, although they have growth prospects due to the Far Eastern route and the "Forces of Siberia — 2".
"Gazprom also has plans to increase supplies to Central Asia, partnership with Iran (which is now in question in the conditions of the conflict in the BV) and LNG production (in particular, the Ust-Luga project). However, Gazprom's export growth plans are long—term and not always definite," the analyst of FG Finam continues.
He notes that in many cases sales prices are inferior to European ones.
"According to our estimates, in an optimistic scenario for the implementation of most of the company's existing projects, Gazprom will be able to restore export volumes to levels close to those of 2021, approximately by 2032-2033," adds Sergey Kaufman. He notes that the rather long process of reorientation of Gazprom's exports is one of the reasons for the high rates of indexation of domestic gas prices: "The company is trying to at least partially compensate for the drop in exports at the expense of the domestic market."
Can we do it ourselves?
Russia remains the main market for Gazprom. According to the company, in 2024, consumption in the country increased by 5.2% to 521.5 billion cubic meters. The domestic market is considered as one of those where the dropped European volumes will go. Gasification continues in the country, Gazprom is promoting the development of the gas engine fuel and gas processing market. One of the new directions is the placement of data centers and cryptocurrency mining in the mining regions in order to increase gas generation.
Experts, however, doubt that consumption volumes will be large.
Independent industrial expert Maxim Khudalov estimates that by 2028 the demand of Russian data centers will grow from a capacity of 0.84 GW to 2.6 GW.
"These are needs in the amount of 2-2.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year," the expert notes.
At the same time in Russian gas remains still inexpensive. The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) confirmed that Gazprom's proposal to index gas prices for all consumers except the population is being discussed twice a year.
"Different proposals, they may have been about 10%, but this does not mean that there will be 10%," said the head of the FAS Maxim Shaskolsky.
At the same time, gas production does not become cheaper.
"We proceed from the fact that gas is a cheap thing, but it is not. And if we continue to think this way, there will be no gas anywhere. The reserves of the "Soviet heritage" are being depleted, the same applies to oil, and new production, both Sakhalin and Kirinskoye, is very expensive gas," Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. According to him, if we proceed from the fact that gas will be at a domestic price, low indexed ... once the holiday of life will cease to be a holiday. During the speech, the minister suggested using coal for data centers and mining.