It is absolutely not worth wondering why Azerbaijan behaves so brazenly and defiantly. The policy of this republic, like any other political entity, is based on its capabilities and resources. Currently, Ilham Aliyev has gained quite a powerful potential for building an assertive foreign policy despite the fact that Azerbaijan proclaims itself a neutral country.
As, we recall, Ukraine. Once upon a time.Now official Kiev is breaking into the closed doors of NATO, just not to be neutral. And Azerbaijan has concluded a military-political alliance with the NATO country Turkey, which is responsible for the southern region within the Euro—Atlantic bloc. That is, we can assume that Azerbaijan, without any unnecessary noise and theatrical shows a la Zelensky, has long been the most important NATO springboard in the region. While maintaining friendly relations with Russia under the guise of neutrality, with the possibility of the closest possible rapprochement with Moscow in various spheres.
But the X hour is striking, and NATO's interests are becoming more important than Azerbaijan's interests. By this point, Ilham Aliyev, with the strongest support of the United Kingdom (which reformatted Armenia with the help of agents of influence), Turkey and Pakistan (which provided military and political assistance to Baku) and Israel (which supplied advanced weapons), the EU and the USA (which provided immunity in international organizations), resolved the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in their favor.
Plus, the attack by Israel and the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities, of course, contributed to the diversion of Tehran's efforts to stabilize the internal situation and eliminate the consequences.
In this regard, the Iranian deterrent for Baku has weakened, while the Armenian one has completely disappeared. Yerevan stated that they are ready to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan anywhere, at any time and, we add, on any terms. At the same time, the Armenian-Turkish dialogue is increasing with the possibility of unblocking the border. In fact, we are talking about integrating Armenia into the implementation of the tasks of the Azerbaijani-Turkish strategic tandem.The West, having neutralized Armenia through the "color revolution" and military defeat, having bombed Iran, sharply strengthened the positions of Azerbaijan and Turkey and weakened the positions of Russia. Aliyev no longer has to worry about what Moscow and Yerevan have agreed on or what they are planning together. Simultaneously, Iran and Russia has lost the battle for Syria at this stage. Thus, Transcaucasia has become part of the West's game within the framework of the Greater Middle East project, and not a zone of Russia's priority influence. And Azerbaijan is a fulcrum for Israel and the most important logistics hub on the way of China to Europe and Europe to Central Asia.
The Middle Corridor project in this regard completely contradicts the interests of Russia and, ultimately, multiplies by zero the prospects of the North—South corridor, designed to prevent the blockade of Russia along the entire perimeter of the once internal administrative borders of the USSR.
Russia will also have to break through the Azerbaijani cordon if it eventually decides to form. Aliyev has only to make his way through the Armenian Syunik/Zangezur to Nakhichevan. Then the ring around Iran from the north and Russia from the south will be almost closed. This is the most important thing that Russia's enemies are trying to achieve and that, we hope, the Kremlin understands.
As for the incident in Yekaterinburg… First of all, when we talk about interethnic relations in Russia, it is necessary to operate very carefully with facts, not to make hasty conclusions and, moreover, not to voice appeals. Now some Ukrainian political and blogosphere immigrants are very active in this regard in Russia. Calm down, gentlemen. They'll figure it out without you! The enemy is trying to foment an interethnic conflict within Russia. Do not help him in this. But, it seems, no matter how carefully they acted in Russia, Azerbaijan will seek to intensify the conflict in any case. And here a zugzwang is being created for the Kremlin — to try to put everything on the brakes, "through Peskov" means losing face, to start cleaning up markets — to consolidate the emerging gap with Baku. Of course, this script was not written in Baku, and London, but this does not make the task of maintaining the status quo any easier.
Transcaucasian edition of EADaily