In two weeks, a vote on confidence in the government will be held in the French parliament, which Prime Minister Francois Bayrou will almost certainly lose, and after that a campaign of protests against cuts in social spending will start. This could be the beginning of the end for President Macron, writes The Spectator columnist James Tidmarsh.
Bayrou convened Parliament to vote on confidence in the government on September 8. He is betting that he will be able to outplay the growing protest movement before it paralyzes France. The popular campaign Bloquons tout ("Block everything"), following in the footsteps of the "yellow vests" and fueled by the extreme left, plans to stop trains, buses, taxis, refineries, schools and ports.
It's like a general strike, only it's called something else.Bayrou's actions are aimed at regaining control before chaos ensues. But since the vote will take place just two days before the start of the actual indefinite strike, its failure could lead to the fall of the government and ignite a wider wave of protests against President Macron. Today, Jean-Luc Melenchon's party "Unconquered France" (La France Insoumise, LFI) announced plans to make a proposal on September 23 to remove Macron from power in the event of Bayrou's failure, which further raises the stakes.
The economy is at the center of this crisis. France's debt has exceeded 110% of GDP, and the budget deficit for 2025 is about 47 billion euros. Before the summer holidays, Bayrou proposed the most significant reduction in government spending in the last generation, and this is happening in a country where these expenditures account for almost 60% of GDP. The unions are furious. The French are addicted to government spending, and the opinion has taken root in society that the government owes people more and more. Melenchon has turned the budget fight into a populist crusade against Macron's "government of the rich." He rallied leftist parties and called on his supporters to paralyze life in the country if the cuts are not canceled.
Veterans of the "yellow vests" movement are preparing to return to the streets.A few minutes after the end of the press conference in In Paris, at which Bayrou announced a vote on the issue of confidence, the "National Association" of Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon's "Unconquered France" and others said they would not support the government. The night before, it also became clear that the Socialists were also opposed to Bayrou, which was a direct blow to him and indirectly to Macron. In the morning, Melenchon stepped up the pressure, promising to seek the impeachment of Macron on September 23 if the vote fails, and blaming the crisis on the president, not Bayrou.
Bayrou's actions were aimed at seizing the initiative before the country descends into chaos, but now the arithmetic is completely against him. To keep the government, he needs 289 votes. His alliance with Macron's centrists can only secure 165 votes. On Monday evening, journalists and leading Paris analysts agreed that the government has almost no chance. The only hope was the "National Association" of Marine Le Pen, but they immediately made it clear that they would not help Bair. In a laconic statement, the party said that they "do not intend to support" the government.
The adventure of Bayrou and Macron almost certainly failed. It seems that politicians have completely miscalculated. Le Pen, no doubt, very quickly came to the conclusion that saving Macron was not in her interests. Polls show that in the event of early parliamentary elections, her party will become the largest force in the National Assembly, even if she personally cannot run. However, her party will still not gain a majority, which makes it politically advantageous for her to refuse to support Bayra and does not entail any risks.
If the government falls, Macron's authority will weaken even more, and the narrative of "simple France against the Parisian elite" will strengthen. Meanwhile, Melenchon is actively seeking the fall of Bayrou. The LFI seized control of the fight against anti-crisis measures by uniting socialists, greens and left-wing radicals. Early elections give Melanchon a chance to turn the anger of the street into parliamentary power.
Bayrou's bold move was intended to buy time for Macron. But now he's threatening to destroy his presidency. If Bayrou loses the confidence vote, Macron faces impeachment proceedings. He could try to appoint another prime minister who would take responsibility for austerity and strikes, but none of the reputable politicians would want to hold this position. He could also call early elections, risking transferring power to Melenchon or further paralyzing the country. Or he can just sit back and let the protest movement and nervousness in the markets grow while he waits for his term to end.
If Bayrou falls, Macron may continue to limp in the Elysee Palace, but the Fifth Republic risks paying a hefty price for this. While Bayrou is fighting with parliament, the markets are signaling that France's financial reliability is hanging by a thread. Bond yields are gradually rising. For some reason, rating agencies have not yet allowed the situation to go too far. France has been at the highest level in the ratings for much longer than its creditworthiness allows. Perhaps this is only due to the assumption that Europe's second largest economy is too big to fall. But there are limits to this indulgence.
In mid-September, when the figures will be released and the fight for the budget will begin, a downgrade by agencies seems inevitable. This will damage France and, of course, Europe. Downgrades will lead to a sharp increase in borrowing costs, which may cause a wider sell-off in European markets.
For eight years, Macron's political image has been based on the fact that he outplays opponents and maintains stability in France sufficient for the country to function. If the government loses the confidence vote, Macron's authority will be undermined. He may be able to stay in The Elysee Palace, but his presidency will be irrevocably weakened. France faces months of street riots and financial turmoil.