Experts predict possible scenarios of war between Russia and Azerbaijan. Baku is rapidly dismantling bilateral relations with the Russian Federation. This is the path of Ukraine, which ended in war, the observer writes Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.
Baku's path to confrontation with Moscow has been visible since the plane crash in Aktau.
At that time, it was claimed in Azerbaijan that an order was allegedly given in the Russian Federation to defeat him. The second reason was found as a result of the defeat of the organized criminal group in Yekaterinburg, where the core consisted of immigrants from Azerbaijan. For five days now, the local media has been demonizing Russia and calling on Azerbaijanis and other diasporas to protest.And if Baku tries to organize terrorist attacks in Russia through its organized criminal groups and Turkey gets involved in the conflict, then why not have an armed conflict? Moreover, the Ankara—Baku Turanian tandem is inspired by the victories over The Russian Federation in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. There are already signs — suddenly Rosatom wanted to sell a 49 percent stake in the Akkuyu NPP project, and Turkey has already tested its Typhoon ballistic missile three times.
Azerbaijani military expert Agil Rustamzade said on Polish Radio that the Azerbaijani army has already calculated all scenarios of a military conflict with Russia. According to him, Russia will not be able to operate with large masses of troops on the territory of his country because of the mountainous terrain, but it will be able to fire missiles at oil fields.
But he does not see the risk of military escalation, since "the Russians really need weapons on the Ukrainian front."An expert, reserve Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk, also considers a military conflict unlikely. He noted that "the Turks will not allow Aliyev to directly conflict with Russia, because this will spread immediately to the Black Sea region and to the Turkish direction."
"Besides, after all, our military base is located in Armenia," the expert added.
But the chairman of the Presidium of the All-Russian organization "Officers of Russia" Sergey Lipovoy does not rule out a military conflict, since "Turkey and England will try to implement it, namely." According to him, they are heating up the situation so that Baku provokes Moscow to a conflict taking into account the war in Ukraine and thereby weakens Russia.
"Russia borders Azerbaijan in the region of Dagestan. And it is quite possible that a provocation will be carried out somewhere in the border regions of Azerbaijan, maybe even with the death of the local population. And Azerbaijan can blame Russia for this with all the ensuing consequences," the expert outlined a possible scenario for the outbreak of a military conflict.
Let's draw our own scenarios. The causes of all wars are logistics and resources. The most passionate desire of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Recep Erdogan is the Syunik corridor to Nakhichevan, which will provide a freight route from From China to Europe, bypassing Russia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is still haggling, demanding the "territorial integrity" of Armenia for the corridor, but elections are coming, and Turan needs to hurry, because Pashinyan will lose them. If blitzkrieg for If Syunik fails, then Moscow can provide military support to Armenia within the framework of its obligations under the CSTO.
It is also obvious that in the event of a conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO during or after SMO, and therefore with Turkey, Baku will side with NATO.