"The future built around the axis of Russia and Iran as the main players in regional security is unstable and undesirable, including for the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan." Former US Undersecretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien
After the results of the 44-day war of 2020 between Azerbaijan and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, the topic of the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" has become one of the central topics in the negotiation process on the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
The region of the proposed corridor has traditionally been considered a zone of influence of Russia.Russian border guards guarded the state border of Armenia with Iran, located in the immediate vicinity of the city of Meghri, through which communications that are the subject of the negotiation process pass. However, after the "velvet revolution" in Armenia in 2018 and the defeat in the 44-day war, through the joint efforts of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Russia's position in the region has significantly weakened. In January 2025, at the initiative of the Armenian side, Russian border guards left the state border of Armenia with Iran. And the agreements within the framework of the Statement of 09.11.2020, according to which the control over the "disputed" road was to be carried out by the Russian military, were reset as a result of the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan by Nikol Pashinyan and the subsequent seizure of the unrecognized republic by Azerbaijan.
Currently, a forty-kilometer section of the road in The Syunik region of Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan with the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic (hereinafter — NAR), has become a geographical point where the geostrategic interests of world and regional powers collided.
Vigen Hakobyan, a journalist and researcher of the post-Soviet space, explains why the Zangezur Corridor in Armenia is needed by regional and world players, including Russia:
"Previously, only specialists spoke about Zangezur. After Armenia lost Karabakh, and Russia and Iran Syria — this southern region of Armenia, officially called the Syunik region, has become the focus of world politics. From the point of view of communication between North and South, West and East — purely geographically, this is certainly a nodal point. And from the point of view of politics, it is an extremely explosive area. What awaits Zangezur (Syunik) in the end — prosperity at the crossroads of the world or another devastating tragedy? Depends on many factors. For, as it was said, this is a nodal point at which the interests of different centers of power converge, achieving their strategic goals in different ways.
Speaking about the so-called "Zangezur corridor", which does not exist yet, it is necessary to clearly separate it from such a concept as the "Middle Corridor", which, in principle, has already taken shape and is working. The "middle Corridor" for China is one of the arms of the "One Belt and Road", which Xi Jinping is building to diversify cargo flows from China is facing a possible blockade from the sea, which sooner or later the Americans and their allies will arrange for the Chinese. Currently, the Transcaucasian links of the "Middle Corridor" are Azerbaijan and Georgia. And Armenia is out of the game in this regard.
In the case of the opening of traffic through Zangezur (Syunik) from Azerbaijan to the NAR, and then to Turkey, a second — alternative to the Georgian — southern branch will be established on the Transcaucasian section of the "Middle Corridor". At the same time, Georgia will lose its monopoly positions in the transit of goods — Azerbaijani, Central Asian, Chinese and others to Europe, and Turkish in the opposite direction. That is why Tbilisi has moderated its speed in reconciling Armenians and Azerbaijanis at this stage. At the same time, Ilham Aliyev, of course, does not want to pay for transit not only to Georgians, but also, especially, to Armenians. Therefore, he insists on the extraterritoriality of the Zangezur Corridor. That is, Armenia, with Pashinyan's complaisance, will not get anything when Aliyev breaks through the corridor to Turkey.
In strategic terms, the Zangezur Corridor is an Azerbaijani—Turkish project supported by the Anglo-Saxons and Israel, aimed against the interests of Iran. Azerbaijan is, in fact, a military-political partner of Israel. During the recent Israeli attack on Iran, drone strikes were also carried out from the north — from the territory of Azerbaijan. In the same place, on the lands along the Araks, which were previously controlled by the Armenians, airfields are being equipped that can be used to attack Iran. The most important thing is that with the inclusion of Armenia in the transport and infrastructure bridge between Azerbaijan and Turkey, Iran may lose access to the Black Sea, which is already difficult due to Armenia's loss of control over the interstate highway to Iran.
For Russia, the possible "Zangezur corridor" is beneficial because it opens land communication with Armenia and Turkey through Azerbaijan in conditions when Georgian transit to the south is now closed. On the other hand, if it is controlled by enemies — say, the Americans, then the Zangezur Corridor can become scissors cutting off the overland branch of the North-South corridor to Iran. The latter determines the interest of the United States in this umbilical cord between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea."
Prior to the seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan in September 2023, the United States did not welcome the so-called "Zangezur Corridor". After Nikol Pashinyan in 2022 in Prague recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, which in fact legitimized the seizure of the unrecognized republic by Azerbaijan in September 2023, the United States changed its approach. As we have already noted, after the end of the 44-day war, the statement of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia provided for the unblocking of regional communications, including the 40-kilometer section of the road in the area of Meghri of the Syunik region of Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan with the NAR. The parties agreed to transfer control of this road to the Russian side. The United States had a negative attitude towards the deployment of the Russian military along communications. However, after the capture of Nagorno-Karabakh, which implies the denunciation of the statement of 09.11.2020, especially in terms of Russian control of communications, the United States changed its approaches. The Americans do not even hide the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh was surrendered to Azerbaijan in order to withdraw Russia from the region. This is what James O'Brien, US Undersecretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, said on 07/30/2024 during a hearing in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the topic "The Future of Europe":
"Armenia is a topic to which we devote a lot of time. A few months ago, we met with Secretary of State Blinken and President of the European Commission Von der Leyen, with Prime Minister Pashinyan, and created a new platform to help Armenia reduce dependence on Russia. Russia has guaranteed Armenia's security after the 2020 war. and this (security provision) failed when Azerbaijan seized the territory around Nagorno-Karabakh: after that, most of the Armenian population wants to move further away from Russia. Therefore, we are creating the conditions for this to happen," O'Brien said.
The events of July 2025 show that the struggle of world and regional players for control over the so—called "Zangezur Corridor" is coming to a climax. The United States is forcing the opening of the corridor and made an unexpected offer to lease it for 100 years. During a press briefing in On July 11, US Special Representative for Middle East Affairs Tom Barak said that Washington is ready to lease a 32-kilometer-long disputed section of the road, which has been the subject of disagreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan for ten years, for a century.
Armenia hastened to refute the information about the agreements on the transfer of the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" under external control.
The Republic of Armenia has not discussed and does not discuss the transfer of control of its sovereign territory to a third party. No part of the territory of the Republic of Armenia can be outside the territorial integrity, sovereignty or jurisdiction of the Republic of Armenia," Nazeli Baghdasaryan, the press secretary of the Prime Minister of the country, told the agency Armenpress.
However, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, at a press conference on 07/16/2025, allowed the transfer of the road to external management, only calling it not a lease, but "outsourcing."
According to some experts, the escalation of relations between Azerbaijan and Russia's current situation should be considered in the context of the possible loss of control of the Russian Federation over the road in Syunik, potentially connecting Azerbaijan with Turkey. Until recently, Russia sought to develop a mutually beneficial model of its presence in the region with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was forgiven for the downing of a helicopter in 2020 and the death of the crew, the seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, during which the Russian military were killed, and the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. Moscow's silence testified to some informal agreements that, despite the events taking place, Russia's interests would be taken into account. However, in all likelihood, the influence of Turkey and the West on Azerbaijan has become decisive in the issue of Ilham Aliyev's negotiability.
If the process of aggravation of Russian-Azerbaijani relations passes the "point of no return", then there are risks of closing the branch of the North-South railway passing through Azerbaijan and connecting Russia with Iran. In this case, the territory of the NAR becomes of strategic importance for Moscow and Iran. Geographically, this is the most convenient section capable of connecting the railways of Iran and Armenia. Georgia, in all likelihood, will not mind becoming part of the North-South project, because, as Vigen Hakobyan accurately noted, the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" reduces its transit potential. This is also evidenced by a certain softening of the rhetoric of the Georgian authorities in relation to Russia, Georgia's refusal to join the Western sanctions policy against Moscow in connection with the Ukrainian events and the unprecedented pressure exerted by the collective West on the South Caucasian republic in connection with this.
In this regard, it is worth paying attention to the amendment of the Constitution of the NAR, in the preamble of which it was noted that the foundations of autonomy were laid by the currently valid Moscow International Treaty of March 16, 1921 and the Kars International Treaty of October 13, 1921. In the new version, these provisions are excluded. In addition, in accordance with the draft amendments, the provision that the NAR is an integral part of Azerbaijan, specified in part III of Article 134 of the Constitution of the Republic of Azerbaijan, will also be reflected in the preamble of the Constitution of the NAR. In all likelihood, the constitutional changes are dictated by the possible risks of military control over the NAR by Russia and Iran.
In case of realization of this scenario, the first priority for Russia and Iran is the change of power in Armenia to a political force more loyal to Moscow and Tehran. Perhaps this circumstance explains the appearance of Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan on the domestic political scene of Armenia. It should be recalled that Samvel Karapetyan was arrested by Armenian law enforcement agencies in connection with criticism of the Armenian authorities and statements in defense of the Armenian Apostolic Church.
Thus, in the near future we may witness a buildup of the internal political situation in Armenia, as well as a military confrontation involving Russia and Iran on the one hand, Azerbaijan and Turkey on the other, in which the main prize is control over the communications of the South Caucasus.