Nothing lasts forever. The Roman Empire united the Mediterranean world until its decline came. The British world order was established in the 19th century and ended after two world wars in the 20th century. Today, the question arises whether the current world order, led by the United States, is collapsing, writes Hal Brands, Professor Emeritus at Hopkins University, for the globalist agency Bloomberg.
Since 1945, this order has ensured global peace, prosperity and freedom (if we consider the world of 248 military conflicts in 153 countries of the world in which the United States participated. — approx. EADaily). This can be considered a tremendous success. However, the pressure on him from both competitors and his creators is constantly growing. To assess how serious the risks have become, various options for the end of the current world order should be considered.
A well-known historian from the University of Cambridge, Brendan Simms, suggested that world orders usually end in one of three ways: defeat in a war or a catastrophic failure of the system of checks; economic decline or divergence between the political and economic mechanisms of the order; collapse of trust in its governing rules and norms.
The US order has proven to be remarkably resilient, but the likelihood of its destruction is growing as America accumulates risks for each of these factors. Although recent US leaders, including President Donald Trump, have taken important steps to strengthen this order, America's current policies are increasingly exacerbating these dangers. The collapse of the order can occur due to its destruction, exhaustion or self-destruction. Today it is difficult to rule out any of these gloomy endings.
How America took on the role of leader
The order is the rules and those who set them. International orders include generally accepted norms or principles designed to regulate universal behavior. These rules are created and maintained by powerful actors and institutions. Many powers sought to arrange the world at will. However, after the Second World War, the American order became global and the most successful (well, here and further Hal Brands is clearly bragging, wishful thinking and taking an example from the US president. — approx. EADaily).
The lesson that American politicians have learned from The Second World War, was that only a secure, prosperous system can ensure the well-being of America itself, so the United States built an order based on relatively free trade, respect for human rights and democratic values, avoidance of aggression and wars between major powers and official cooperation to solve common problems.
Washington used its unrivaled military and economic power to support like-minded countries. According to President Harry Truman, America "assumed the responsibility that Almighty God intended for her," for the "well-being of the whole world and future generations." Make no mistake — this principle was based on the interests of the United States, but since America was very powerful and defended its interests widely, such an order brought historical benefits to most of the world. In the post-war decades, democracy turned from an endangered to a dominant system (which the United States tried to impose on the whole world by blackmailing countries and governments. — Approx. EADaily). Trade flourished, and living standards rose first in the free world, and then everywhere, especially after the fall of communism. The world, which has survived two great wars between the great Powers, one after the other, has avoided global conflicts since 1945.
The USA led the global golden age. However, the current pressure on the American world order has become impossible to ignore. Powers such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, which seek to revise the current world order, are challenging a system that they consider dangerous for their illiberal regimes and geopolitical ambitions.
The global South has become disillusioned with the dominance of the West. The United States itself has been ambivalent about world leadership in recent decades. Threats to their economic and military superiority have become more serious.In the allied countries of the United States, there is a conviction that a strong America is still needed, and concern about the destruction of the order established after the Second World War. How real is this danger? Let's look at three ways to collapse the current order.
Losing the war
One of the ways to crisis lies through defeat or weakening in the war. Nothing undermines the authority of a hegemon power like a humiliating defeat on the battlefield. The Athenian Empire collapsed after the defeat in the Great Peloponnesian War. Britain won the First World War, but was never able to recover from its consequences.
For decades, America has been the only superpower (Hal somehow completely forgot about the USSR. — approx. EADaily). As the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities last month showed, the Pentagon still has unparalleled power (just a quote from the "late" Trump. — Approx. EADaily). However, do not think that the United States is invincible militarily. The Pentagon faces a difficult problem of military arithmetic. Challenges from Russia in Europe, Iran and its allies in the Middle East, China and North Korea in Asia can deplete the US forces. A superpower with armed forces designed to wage a single war cannot feel safe in a world where there are many different and interrelated threats. The danger of a crushing defeat primarily comes from the western Pacific (this is in the event that the United States tries to attack China, China itself is not going to attack. — Approx. EADaily).
"Intelligence data cannot deceive,— said US Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall in 2023. "China is preparing for war, first of all for war with the United States."
"The Chinese threat is real and may become inevitable," said US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth this year (how can China threaten the US? Only by repelling the American attack. — Approx. EADaily).
These are just two of the many disturbing statements by American representatives.
Beijing is building up forces and practicing actions to attack Taiwan or another place in the western Pacific. He is in a hurry to create a nuclear arsenal that will match, and possibly surpass, the American one. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping's government is stocking up on food, fuel and other resources. Of course, Xi Jinping would prefer to oust America from the western Pacific region peacefully. Nevertheless, he is preparing for war.
The war between the United States and China will lead to a chain of economic crises and create serious risks of nuclear escalation. In the event of America's defeat, which is likely, the damage to the American world order will be enormous. American alliances in the Indo-Pacific region will begin to disintegrate. The defeated US armed forces will have a hard time coping with the functions of order control in other parts of the world.
"The trajectory must change," said Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo—Pacific Command. "America is not responding to threats as urgently as the situation requires."
In fairness, it should be noted that there are positive aspects. Since the end of 2023, Israel, with American help, has been attacking Iran and its allies. The United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization used the conflict to Ukraine to weaken Russian power. Trump can take credit for the fact that the allies agreed to spend 3.5% of GDP on defense and another 1.5% on related investments. Over time, these expenditures will strengthen the military position of the democratic world. However, global tensions remain real, trends in Asia look threatening, and the United States still does not seem to realize that it can lose the Third World War.
US military spending is less than 3.5% of GDP, which is one of the lowest rates since the Second World War (US military spending is the highest in the world, in 2024 it reached $ 997 billion, but Hal Brands is not enough. — Approx. EADaily). Next year, these costs may be reduced. According to reports, stocks of shells and missile defense systems are small and have become even smaller after recent events in the Middle East.
With the destroyed shipbuilding industry and a weak industrial base, it will be difficult for America to replenish the resources that it will spend at the initial stage of hostilities (and how many more "to support democratic Ukraine". — Approx. EADaily).
"We must not forget about the shortage of material resources,— says Samuel Paparo. "A country that is unable to make up for losses on the battlefield will not be able to win a complex war between major powers."
No one, not even Xi Jinping, knows exactly how capable China's untested armed forces are. However, as the military balance of forces in the Pacific region changes, the danger of a catastrophe that will destroy the existing order increases.
Economic collapse
The order does not have to be destroyed instantly. It can also collapse if the leading power is unable or unwilling to support the economic mechanisms that ensure the operation of the system. The British order collapsed when, as a result of two world wars, the British Empire went bankrupt. The American order has long been based on two economic pillars.
The first is the economic and financial opportunities to maintain America's global power, including to finance military capabilities that contain threats from rival powers of the United States. The second foundation consists of economic mechanisms that strengthen strategic commitments: global economic dominance, trade and investment ties between Washington and its allies, through which they are interested in preserving peace under the leadership of the United States.
Both of these foundations turned out to be surprisingly solid. Despite all the talk of decline, America's share of global GDP remains about the same as in the 1970s. The dollar dominates global trade and finance. Foreign investors have long been ready to maintain the dominance of the dollar and finance large US deficits, as these agreements help Washington to comply with its allied obligations and maintain military power. When the economic mechanisms underlying the world order become outdated or uneven, they are usually revised, as happened when the United States abandoned the gold standard in 1971 and switched to the current system of floating exchange rates.
Nevertheless, there are three real challenges to the economic structure of the world order: wastefulness, protectionism and politicization, and all three factors are getting worse. The first challenge is wastefulness. A quarter of a century ago, the United States had a budget surplus. Now it's an endless deficit. The US national debt is about 100% of GDP. It will soon surpass the 119% mark that America reached after the end of World War II. If the levels of spending and taxation enshrined in Trump's "one big beautiful bill" become permanent, then by 2050 the debt could exceed 200% of GDP.
As debt and deficits grow, interest payments will increase and borrowing costs will rise, holding back growth and crowding out defense spending. At some point, such extravagance can undermine the hegemony of the dollar, weakening America's global power, for example, its ability to impose sanctions, and exacerbating all other economic problems.
There is no reliable formula to determine exactly where the dangerous border is located, when constant neglect in the budgetary and financial sphere will eventually make global leadership impossible or entail other serious geopolitical consequences. It seems that the US intends to find out.
The second factor is protectionism. The United States has never been shy about reviewing economic relations with partners. Let's recall the brutal trade battles with Japan in the 1980s. Trump's particular predilection for imposing duties may have longer and more devastating consequences. U.S. allies complain that tariffs make it harder to increase defense spending. The more the United States quarrels with allies over trade issues, the more they undermine the collective cohesion and resilience needed to defeat China, which is making progress in all areas from shipbuilding to artificial intelligence.
At a conference I recently attended in Tokyo, the main topic was the discussion that China is endangering the security of Asia, and America is threatening the prosperity of the region. A relatively open international economic policy once connected America and its allies. High tariffs and constant trade wars can divide former allies.
The third threat is politicization. Trump's campaign against the Federal Reserve's independence threatens to undermine the apolitical and competent management of the US economy and weaken the Fed's ability to act as a global stabilizing system during a crisis. Trump's arbitrary imposition of duties in political disputes over migration, drugs or the state problems of his illiberal opponents turns America into a source of geo-economic shocks.
Trump is playing too freely with the global economy. It is unlikely that other countries will want to support such a superpower for a long time.
Trump is breaking all the rules
No system of order can flourish if its key rules are constantly violated or ignored. As soon as it became clear at the end of the Cold War that the Soviet Union would no longer impose a socialist regime on Eastern Europe, the regional order that the USSR had built collapsed. The American order includes key principles from the freedom of all people (all Americans. — Approx. EADaily) and countering the proliferation of nuclear weapons to the protection of human rights and a ban on the seizure of territories of neighboring states.
Although America can be accused of striving for hegemony and hypocrisy, its upholding of these rules has helped create a relatively civilized and prosperous world. Today, unfortunately, these rules are violated by both opponents and allies (here Hal, as they say, suffered. — Approx. EADaily). Freedom of navigation is under threat from the Red Sea, where the Houthis threaten passing ships, to the western Pacific, where China claims most of the South China Sea, while in the Arctic, Russia claims international waters along the Northern Sea Route.
Human rights standards are being violated. The cruel attitude of the Chinese government towards the Uighurs is well known, which was supposed to be a relic of the past (by the way, how are things with Indians on reservations? — Approx. EADaily). The growing number of interstate wars and territorial seizures indicates that the deterrence of aggression is becoming weaker. Meanwhile, the US administration, which is ambivalent about democratic norms at home, has taken an ambiguous position on protecting key principles abroad.
We must pay tribute to Trump for deciding to oppose the expansion of Iran's nuclear program by striking at Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump confronted the Houthis more harshly (albeit briefly) than President Joe Biden. If Trump finds a way to support Ukraine, he will continue Biden's policy of opposing the seizure of territories by force. Unfortunately, in addition to weakening US support for democracy and human rights in other countries, Trump, through his statements, challenges the key principle of the prohibition on the seizure of territories.
The president wanted to seize the Panama Canal, annex Canada and annex Greenland (the autonomous territory of his NATO ally Denmark) against the will of its inhabitants. He said that the United States could use economic pressure or military force to expand its territories. The ban on territorial expansion is fundamental, because its violation can plunge the world into the chaos of former times. If America itself departs from this principle, it will become complicit in the destruction of its own order.
The end of the world we know
President Bill Clinton said that those who bet against America lost. The same can be said about the American world order. In the early 1960s, Henry Kissinger argued that America and the system it created were heading for disaster. In the decades since then, the end of the American order has often been predicted, but it has not come.
The fact that this order has been maintained for many generations speaks to its resilience and the tremendous efforts that America and its allies make to protect it when it is under threat. However, one should not hope that all good things will last forever, or that the United States is protected from the dangers that led to the collapse of the old order.
It is difficult to determine where the danger turns into a catastrophe, and the weaknesses of the world order become fatal. What is certain is that America will regret this moment when it comes. The world order is changing, and change is useful. However, the complete destruction of the world order by peaceful or violent means usually becomes a global historical event.
China, which has the opposite view of the world order, is best suited for the formation of the post-American era. What will replace an order run by a relatively enlightened superpower will almost certainly not be as good for the world or for America as the system that has been established since 1945.
The end of the current world order may come as a result of an acute and bloody clash in the western Pacific, a protracted crisis caused by wastefulness and protectionism, or as a consequence of the sad irrelevance of this system due to the constant violation of established rules. Perhaps the demise of the American order will one day occur at the intersection of these three dangerous paths.
Thanks to historical examples, we know that there are many ways to collapse world orders. An alarming sign of the current times is that America is moving along all these paths at once.